For those of you who dont know me (which I'm assuming is none of you but go with me) you may not know this, but Dick Morris is one of my favorite political pundits ever. Not because he's right as much as no one works as hard as he does at being wrong, see for example his book published in 2006 about the then upcoming 2008 race "Condi vs Hilary" (which in case you were off planet or in a coma was wrong on both counts).
In fact while there are almost no "laws of politics" one of the few that does exist is that "what ever Dick Morris says the opposite will happen." For example according to the Anti-Einstein of politics, the 2012 the electoral college would be a Romney landslide 325-213. And what happened? well to use the bard of buffoonery's own words "I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker." Note by the way for those of you not fluent in speaking Dick, squeaker here is defined as "332-206" and last I checked thats a larger margin of victory then what he was predicting for Romney, so "squeaker" means "even bigger landslide".
And to be honest thats what makes Dick Morris so enjoyable, he's consistently wrong and therefore must spend most of his time climbing out of the holes he put himself in. And his excuses are awesome and usually contradictory.
For example in his day after election analysis Dick Morris said: "The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics."
In otherwords: "Who would have expected that 4 years later black/brown and young people would still EXIST? I mean come on, dont the summoning spells for these people expire at the end of 1D3 years?"
Now apparently even Dick Morris is aware of the "Dick Morris rule" that says he cant be right. Which may explain today's replacement explanation:
"As the popular vote counts emerge and we move out from under the shadow of the media spin, we are learning the real reason Romney lost. The mainstream media is pushing the story that a massive turnout among minorities and the young drowned the white male vote as America changes its demography.
But the real reason is that the whites who supported Romney didn’t turn out to vote. Just look at the fact, brought to my attention by National Review and Washington Examiner columnist Byron York, that Obama carried Ohio by 107,000 votes (some are still being counted) and that Romney got about 100,000 fewer votes than McCain! (2,677,820 for McCain v. 2,583,580 for Romney). Romney really lost by failing to turn out his base even as Obama was doing a very good job of getting his to the polls."
See, it turns out the mainstream media (like Dick Morris) is pushing this big lie about how 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout wouldnt recede and these high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay and any one who thought otherwise was mistaken.
See it turns out the REAL reason Romney didnt win isnt that at all (remember the Dick Morris rule) its that white people didnt show up. And if white people had shown up Romney would have won. But see they didnt show up because to quotethe Emperor of Ineptitude:
"Why was the white vote so low? Why did so many anti-Obama voters stay home? The immediate cause was the total failure of the ORCA system for getting out the vote. This new hi tech gadgetry had never been beta tested and crashed repeatedly on Election Day. It was supposed to target the Romney supporters who had not yet voted and to give canvassers interactive maps of where to find them and to keep them appraised if they voted. But the volunteers who were to use the system to find the voters had not been adequately trained in their use and the system itself was flawed."
Basically we couldn't win because our people are idiots and cant figure out technology.
But of course being Dick Morris, The 1 True Explanation for Why We Lost [not counting the The 1 True Explanation for Why We Lost from last week] isnt good enough. No see Dick Morris needs "The Two 1 True Explanation for Why We Lost" as in that same column he also said:
"Finally, the storm Sandy had a great deal to do with Obama’s re-election. His presidency may be its most lasting damage to our nation and its inhabitants. One voter in six cited the storm as the key factor in their decision to back Obama according to exit polls, a last minute bump for the president that was not reflected in the polls. Why not? Because there were no polls. The polling firms could not reach the affected areas during the storm. We were all flying blind when Obama and Governor Chris Christie’s display of bi-partisanship garnered votes of the Democratic ticket."
Right see Sandy made it impossible to poll (except of course for everyone who polled) so there was no way to predict that the same polls that showed Obama leading BEFORE Sandy, still showed him leading AFTER Sandy. I mean really what science would ever suggest that without a negative stimuli things would continue in the same direction they were going?
or well that would be true for MOST of us, but you see this is Dick Morris. So of course Dick Morris had his own numbers and never saw it coming, as Dick Morris himself pointed out before Sandy hit:
"On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.
To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one.
If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008."
And how did Dick Morris' real numbers hold up? Well Romney did win Indiana and North Carolina. But New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Ohio Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey? not so much. In fact in about half of those Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, Romney not only didnt come close, NO ONE expected him to win those (except some republicans who bought in the myth of Pennsylvania being in reach for the 6th straight election).
So at least now we know why Dick Morris was wrong, its not his fault. it was due to black, Latino, and young voters showing up, and then not at all anything to do with black, Latino, and young voter but white voters not showing up due to technological problems so they didnt show up in the numbers the polls predicted. Except the polls werent predicting turnout correctly anyways due to Sandy, so you couldnt trust the polls saying there would be a large white turnout that failed to materialize due to technological failures in the first place since even before Sandy they werent the REAL numbers.
So see there you are the official "Three One True Explanation for Why We Lost"
Every one clear on that?
Good me either, but I do so love to see Dick Morris try to explain why Dick Morris is always wrong.
(all Dick Morris quotes from his own column on his website at DickMorris.com)
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