The Right Wing Presidential Recount Conspiracy

If you've been following the news recently you might have heard Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein has successfully raised 4 million dollars for recounts of the popular vote in the states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, all of which were won by about 1% by Donald Trump.

Now to the right wing wack jobs....this is evidence of a massive conspiracy as evidenced by their headlines:

First per The Donald's personal media site Breitbart: "
Jill Stein Trying to ‘Delegitimize’ Trump With Recount"

Or the home of Birthism, WorldNetDaily:
"Operation steal seeks recount to declare Hillary president"

And per Infowars, home of most right wing conspiracy theories and infamous conspiracy theorists Alex Jones:
"BREAKING: DEMOCRAT COUNTER-COUP AGAINST TRUMP IN PROGRESS"

"IS JILL STEIN’S RECOUNT AN ATTEMPT TO STEAL THE ELECTION FOR HILLARY?" 

Shockingly thought......it turns out they are 100% correct.

Generally speaking the purpose of a recount is because you dont believe the results are correct and your hoping a recount will change those results.

That's not a conspiracy....thats the fucking point of a recount.

But apparently the right wing cant wrap their heads around that, as the mental gymnastics and accusations they have to go through to get their is crazy.

For example, from that 2nd InfoWars article:

"Some Trump supporters are concerned that Jill Stein’s recount is an attempt to steal the election for Hillary Clinton after questions were asked as to why the recount is only taking place in closely fought swing states that Trump won.

“This is not being done to benefit one candidate at the expense of the other,” Stein told PBS.
If that’s the case, why is Stein only fundraising to conduct recounts in states where Trump won?"
Literally just explained this. No one ever asks for a recount of results they agree with....its not a thing that happens

"Hillary won New Hampshire, Minnesota & Nevada by fewer votes than Trump won Pennsylvania, but there will be no recount in any of those three states.

While Trump won Pennsylvania by around 78,000 votes, Clinton won New Hampshire by less than 3,000 votes. Hillary won Minnesota by less than 44,000 votes and Nevada by around 26,000 votes.

If this was a fair and impartial effort to recount closely fought swing states, at least one of the recounts should be taking place in a state where Hillary won, but that isn’t the case.".

I havnt checked the numbers, but I know they are more or less right here, Nevada, New Hampshire and Minnesota were very close Clinton wins.

Now if only there was something someone could do about that......like raise money for a recount in those states as well....maybe some right wing group like Info Wars could do that?

NAHHH, that would require time, effect, and of course the believe Trump actually won those states.....which I have to say, as much as they are whining about recounts, I'm not sure the right wing has.

Ok, so look, to be completely fair, the chances of Steins recount actually changing the results of the election is incredibly small.  Trump currently has 306 electoral votes, and needs to keep at least 270 to win.  Meaning the recount would have to flip 38 electoral votes.

The combined votes of those 3 states is 46....but the smallest of those states is worth 10 votes. Which basically means, the only way to remove 38 electoral votes from Trump is to flip ALL 3.

They ALL have to go to Clinton or nothing changes.

So realistically, this is not a thing that Trump supporters should worry about...unless the results in Florida are also challenged (as they too are razor thin for Trump, but they are not currently being challenged) as Florida + any of the other 3 states could tip the election if the results changed......but again even that is very very very very very very very unlikely.

And of course that brings us right back to where we started on this bit.....if the right wing is that worried those 3 states or potentially Florida flipping....file recounts in NH, NV and MN...y'all have that right.

So this isnt a conspiracy and  right wingers arnt helpless....despite the fact the remainder of that InfoWars article makes them out to be so:


"Stein’s recount effort only began after computer scientists claiming anomalies between the electronic voting machine results and the paper ballot results met with the Clinton campaign and asserted that the vote may have been “hacked”.

That explanation also makes zero sense in the case of Michigan, which didn’t use electronic voting machines.

“We are an entire paper and optical scan state,” Chris Thomas, the longtime director of Michigan’s Bureau of Elections, told the Detroit Free Press. “Nothing is connected to the Internet.”

The vote has already been counted twice in Michigan. A quick count was conducted and the results announced on the morning of November 9th. A second certified count was then conducted, with the final results announced yesterday, with Trump winning by 10,704.

If a third vote count in Michigan, which only uses paper ballots, was to flip the state to Hillary, this would obviously suggest vote fraud not with regard to the original vote, but the recount itself.

Questions are also swirling as to how Stein managed to raise such a whopping sum of money, now over $4.7 million dollars, in such a short space of time given that she only raised around $3 million dollars for her entire campaign.
Suspicions over the regularity and timing of the donations have also led some to claim that the entire process is illegitimate."
See, instead of suggesting Right Wingers do something proactive (like demand the recounts they are entitled too in the 3 states mentioned), InfoWar's "solution" is to attack the legitimacy of the Stein Recounts....even though they are highly highly unlikely to work.

They apparently cant believe that a recount that clearly would benefit the candidate most people voted for might actually be able to raise a ton of money real fast to see if she [clinton] did actually win.  Stein is being attacked on the same lines in pretty much all the other headlines I mentioned too....they are all going after the legitimacy of the money she raised and how impossible it is for this to have happened.

There is something else telling here as well....given the amount of effort going into delegitimizing the recall effort...the right seems terrified Trump didnt actually win a couple of those states.

And that wouldnt be a new thing either. Quoting from the other InfoWars article I mentioned at the top:

"Calls for a recount and the erroneous assertion that Hillary won the popular vote are fueling the latest sneak effort by the globalists to rip the control out of the hands of the rightful heirs: The American Patriots."

Its the bold part that's relevant here Hillary DID win the popular vote, as even Donald Trump admits. Now of course the popular vote doesnt matter as far as who becomes president......but the right wing is out to undermine it anyways....anything they have to do to make the Recounts appear build on a false idea and completely illegitimate to ask for.....because deep down, they seem to be terrified Jill Stein is right and Donald Trump didnt win.

Though I will be fair and close with one more quote from a slightly more sane Right Winger, the guy mentioned in the Breitbart Article I mentioned at the beginning, a radio host named Craig Melvin...who actually said something I somewhat agree with:

“I would like to float another theory out there , my own personal theory perhaps, that this could be an effort, an early effort to try and delegitimize a president before he’s sworn in. If you can create this idea, plant this seed with a significant number of people in the country, that it was rigged—oh, the irony—then, perhaps, maybe that’s — maybe that’s part of it.”
 
Yes, it would be ironic if, after Donald Trump spent weeks if not months claiming the elections were rigged against him and after the GOP spend 8 years floating crazy idea after crazy idea about how Barack Obama wasnt a legitimate president.....because say he was born in Kenya, at least according to Donald Trump, that it would now be Donald Trump whose viewed as the illegitimate president.

But again, even this is based on the premise that the recounts cut into Trump's electoral lead, if not outright reverse it.

If all 3 recounts take place, and if all 3 recounts reveal Trump actually did win the state (which is a MUCH more likely outcome than Hillary taking any of them, let alone all 3), that actually supports the idea that Donald Trump was legitimately elected President...in fact we went back and proved it twice.

So instead of being an effort to "delegitimize a president before he’s sworn in", it would actually wind up legitimizing him.

But this is apparently a thought that is well above and beyond most right wing media. Because at the end of the day, it seems even they cant believe they actually won, and are convinced everyone must still be out to get them.

They've become so paranoid they cant take yes for an answer.  If they werent about to be running the country, this would be fucking hilarious.

What the fuck just happened 2016?

With all due respect to whatculutre.com and their bit with with same name.....WHAT THE FUCK JUST HAPPENED!?!?

Donald Trump is the President-Elect of the United States.

Now to say this is unexpected would be a massive understatement.....in fact reporting has come out that even the RNC's internal polls had Trump losing. 

Still, Donald Trump is the President-Elect of the United States.  

Hillary Clinton WON the popular vote. The majority of american saw through Donald Trump's bullshit.

Still, Donald Trump is the President-Elect of the United States.  

So how did this happen?

Well on paper the answer seems easy enough, in a massive shock Wisconsin went red for the first time since 1984, and Hillary Clinton massively under-preformed in (still uncalled) Michigan and Pennsylvania, the latter of which went red for the first time since 1988.

But honestly, I think the answer is slightly more insidious, and complicated.

For starters I think it was the "they are both the same" mentality that people embraced as a way to "tune out" the election.

People heard Trump was a bad candidate. As he was, I mean look no farther than what he wants to do to women's vagnias, or his views on giving more countries nuclear weapons.

But they would also hear Hillary was a bad candidate. And she was, I mean look no farther than her wall street speeches or complete inability to defend herself on her emails.

So many people decided "They both suck" was an easier position to take than figuring out who was the lesser of two evils and voting for that one.

Which is INSANE because in no way were Trump and Hillary equally as bad on almost any given issue.

For example, Abortion.

If your pro choice, you can not honestly believe Donald "I would overturn Roe V Wade and Punish Women who have abortions" Trump is as bad as Hillary "well Im not exactly in favor of late term abortions" Clinton on that issue

Or on free trade, you cant honestly believe Hillary "I have a public and private position on TPP" Clinton and  Donald "I oppose the TPP, CAFTA and NAFTA" Trump were going to exactly the same on that issue.

Now yes, you might find yourself agreeing with one on one issue and the other on the other....but that doesnt mean they are equally as bad, that means you have to decide which of those issues is slightly more important to you and vote that way.

But people think that is hard, and they cant be bothered.

And this in turn I think led to many people voting 3rd party, cause hey, then you can send a message to the "establishment" they suck....even when the candidates your voting for tend to hold the same position as the ones you think suck.

For example I have bad news for any pro choice people who voted Gary Johnson over Hillary....hes anti abortion like Trump.  Ditto by the way if your anti free trade and voted Jill Stein over Trump...shes pro free trade.

So you didnt make a choice...you took the easy way out.

I happened to watch the election with a group of people who all voted 3rd party, or didnt vote. Now as the night dragged on, and our state wasnt called for either candidate....and was looking more and more necessary for Clinton to win to have a chance of winning, I watched recrimination after recrimination go around the room, mostly a lot of "oh god maybe I should have voted for clinton".

Now my state DID eventually go for Clinton, not that it mattered at the end of the day.

But a lot of other states didnt. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in particular didnt go for Clinton. Neither did Florida. Michigan and Airizona havnt been called yet, but still probably wont go to clinton.  New Hampshire hasnt been called yet either....that might go to Clinton though.

But heres the thing, look at the vote totals out of those states: 

Wisconsin was 1,382,210 votes for Clinton and 1,409,467 votes for Trump.

So Trump won by 27,257 votes.

Pennsylvania was Clinton: 2,844,705,  Trump: 2,912,941. A difference of  68,236.

Florida was Clinton 4,485,745, Trump 4,605,515. A difference of  119,770

And Michigan seems set for similar numbers...though as it hasnt been called yet, I wont be doing the math for that one. Ditto with New Hampshire (Arizona has Trump up 5% at the moment, so not that close)

Still in all cases, those are TINY numbers.
In fact, in Wisconsin, 

Gary Johnson got 106,442, or almost 5 times the difference in the vote total 

And Jill Stein beat the difference in the vote total, she got 30,980.

And the Constitution Party, Workers World, and Independent party got about 15,000 combined.  (and Im betting you never heard of those parties before)

Those numbers by the way, play out the same in PA
Gary Johnson himself beat that number. He got 142,653 votes.

Jill Stein even almost beat that number, she got 48,912

Heck even the Constitution party candidate in PA got about a 1/3 of that difference with 20,896 votes

And Florida, Gary Johnson got 206,007, roughly double the vote difference

Stein and other 3rd parties got a total of about 80,000 for the record.

Michigan seems set for an even narrower decision, with about 10-15,000 votes being the deciding factor...meaning this time even the Constitution party probably has more votes than than, let alone Stein and Johnson.

And, just for the record in New Hampshire right now, Clintons lead is less than 1,000 votes...so pretty much ALL 3rd parties beat that difference in the votes.

Now your probibily thinking....whats my point?

Well first, anyone who voted 3rd party in any of those states and woke up this morning going "holy fuck, what the fuck just happened, how can Donald Freaking Trump be president?"......I got news for you, YOUR THE GOD DAMN REASON WHY.

Now look I admit, Im sure some of those 3rd party voters are happier with Trump than Clinton, or legitimately are 3rd party and didnt do it because "both candidates suck" but I have a sneaking suspicion in all 3 of those states there were definitely enough voters who would have preferred Clinton to Trump but voted 3rd party cause they "both suck" to swing those states.

Now what difference would that have made?

Well at the moment with the 3 states uncalled, the Electoral vote is  228 for Clinton and 279 for Donald Trump (and 31 still up for grabs).

But, lets say instead of voting 3rd party, all the "we prefer Hillary to Trump" people actually voted for Hillary and switched those 3 states (PA, WI and presumably MI) blue?

 Then the Electoral map would be 274 votes for Clinton and 249 votes for Trump (with 15 unassigned between AZ and NH).

in otherwords Hillary would have won. And it turns out, she wouldnt even need New Hampshire.

And Florida by the way is worth 29 electoral votes, meaning she could have lost any 2 of those 3 listed above +NH, AND STILL WON.  

But hey, both candidates sucked and you voted 3rd party.....good fucking job.

And too be honest, I dont mean to direct that just to the "prefer Hillary" 3rd party voters in MI, WI and PA.....it applies to the voters in NH, CO, MA. MN, and NV voters as well, where Hillary won by about 1-2%...or any state like VA that took a lot longer to call than it should even it it wasnt close (5%) win....you all just got fucking lucky your state went the way of your second choice.

Now I know some people are going to think maybe I'm being a bit unfair to the 3rd party voters, I mean you know if the democrats had run a better candidate....like say Bernie Sanders, then maybe those folks would have voted Democrat, and you know we wouldnt have record 3rd party support in a lot of states.

To which I say, I dont think Im being unfair at all....its not my problem those people didnt understand the possible consequences of their actions.....but Im understandably pissed we all have to live with them....despite the plurality of us voting for Hillary Clinton.

Which brings us to the ultimate irony here.....at the end of the day, Donald Trump was 100% correct. The system IS rigged, as for the second time in 16 years we get set to swear in our 2nd republican president who failed to win a majority of the popular vote.

Thank you Electoral College.  And thank you Founding Fathers for creating the Electoral College cause the average american was too stupid to elect the "right" person to be president.

The last 2 (of 5) times we really got a pair of geniuses foisted on us because we were too stupid to pick the "better and more qualified" one.  And actually given that one of those 3 previous times resulted in us getting President Hayes, who ended Reconstruction in the south, and let them put Jim Crow laws and legal discrimination in place for the next century, I think we should really consider you guys 2 for 5 (at best) in terms of making sure we got the best choice cause we are too dumb to pick it our selves.

Early Sleepers Guide to when you can sleep on election night 2016

Alright, so even if youve been living under a rock, you know theres an election tomorrow. Hell an alien ship could crash land in the middle alaska, and the one thing they would know by the time their people came to pick them up is we have an election.

And youve probibily also heard its going to be a close election, which usually means a long night..and you might need to go to bed early

So with that in mind, heres the early sleepers guide to election night 2016:

Ok so first, we establish the states that wont have any real surprises for each side,

For Hillary Clinton, thats VT, MA, RI, NY, CT, NJ, MD, VA, DC, WI, MN, IL, CO, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI and 3 votes from ME, for a starting total of 252 of the needed 270 electoral votes.

For Donald Trump thats WV, IN, KY, TN, SC, AL, MS, LA, AK, MO. KS, TX, OK, ND, SD, MT, WY, ID, AK and 4 Votes from NE, for a starting total of 157 votes.

Now you can see already, Trumps winning more states....but Clintons winning the more populated states, and since the electoral college  (EC) works on population, that means Clinton has almost an 100 EC vote lead, and is much closer than Trump is to victory.

Now this also leaves several swing states, NH, MI, OH, IA, NC, GA, FL, NV, UT, AZ, and 1 vote each from ME and NE are the commonly accepted swing states.

Though to be honest, I think thats actually way to broad....it now seems a safe bet Clinton will pick up MI, and Trump is a near lock to win GA, UT and that 1 vote from NE, and a safe bet for AZ, and IA as well

Making the new totals Clinton 268 to 197 for Trump.

This leaves NH, OH, NC, FL, NV, and that 1 ME vote as the remaining swing votes.

And to be honest, there is no way for a 269/270 split, meaning that one vote in ME is basically worthless as far as affecting someones chances to win, so we can ignore it.

Of these remaining 5 states, its not outside the realm of possibility that either candidate wins, any of them, and in theory a win in any of them puts Hillary Clinton over the top and makes her president.

Trump by comparison needs to win all 5, so the odds dont appear in his favor from this initial set up.

But upsets happen, and its likely going to take some time for any of those 5 states to actually get called, so the question becomes how soon can you safely go to bed.

And of course each side has a couple of "reach states" the would like to take from the other, Clinton would like to pick off GA and AZ from Trumps pile.

Trump meanwhile would like MI and PA from Clintons pile.

Now because we are trying to get this done early....Im not going to focus too much on AZ, I think the race could and will be called before anyone tries to call AZ

now because Clinton is so close to winning, the truth is, if they call GA as "too close to call" , you can probably safely go to bed....the chances of Trump not getting a solid win in GA and picking up all 5 of those swing states is incredibly small unless he scores an upset in PA

And if they already called PA for Clinton, and then GA as "too close to call"...go to bed, Clinton's going to win, the odds of trump running the table on those 5 states is basically nill.

Conversely if they call PA as "too close to call" and GA for Trump.....your going to be pulling late hours, and Trumps got a decent shot, as this particular set up results in a 248/197 Clinton lead.

But if they call FL for Clinton in this situation....you can probably go to bed, that kicks her up to 277...if she holds MI. However none of the other swings put her over the top alone, if she can win two of them though...you can sleep.

And of course, the reverse is true as well, if GA goes red and MI goes "too close to call", and Clinton picks up FL and keeps PA....shes got 281, you can sleep now.

However in this case, she could also win in OH and have exactly 270....meaning you can go to bed if that call is made for Clinton as well.

But what if they call GA for Trump and both MI and PA as "too close to call"?

Well at this point, its officially a fight, with Clinton at 232 to Trumps 197....but I dont like Clintons chances if she cant lock down both MI and PA, so you can probably go to bed.

And if Trump somehow wins both PA and MI (plus GA), then its going to be a very long night. At that point the EC vote total is a Trump lead of 233 to 232....and no one of the 5 swing states is large enough for either candidate to win....though again the safe bet is this means Trump wins cause theres not any likely situation in which Clinton can lose those 2 states, and still have a chance of winning enough of the remaining 5 to win.

Finally we get to the least likely situation of all, and the only one that likely requires you staying up past 10 o'clock EDT or so,  

Trump wins PA and MI but loses GA and AZ.

This would result in total and utter annihilation of the space time continuum (cause of how extremely unlikely it is)

no seriously, this would give us a 259 to 206 EC vote split....with Hillary still winning. Now this and a call in any of FL, NC or OH for Hillary would allow you to go to bed, she just won (somehow).

This also happens to be the ONLY case in which that 1 vote in ME is at all relevant, as a call for Hillary in both NV and NH would give her 269 votes....meaning that ME vote could put her over the top.

Conversely this also means, if they only call NH and NV for Hillary in this situation, and Trump gets the rest......we have a tie.

Which means every body should make their way to the nearest bar and drink them out of businesses...we are totally fucked.

So yea, there you have it....at least for the presidential race, it might actually be an early night...assuming no surprises it will take only 1 call of one of the east coast/central swings (NH, FL, NC or OH) for Clinton...and we can all call it a night.

And even in most of the likely surprise cases where one of the 4 possible reach states gets flipped or at least turned "too close to call" you probably wont have to be up all that late....maybe 11 or midnight EDT.

Now if you care about the senate races.....thats going to be a whole different problem....and you better get the coffee ready cause you likely wont be sleeping anytime soon.

So the odds are extremely good the Democrats will take 3 Republican Seats specifically IL, WI and PA (in that order of likelyhood). But to take the senate....they need 5, 4 if Hillary wins.

The only other seats they have a chance at are in NH and MO, now if they lose both of them....thats it for the senate, you can call it a night and go to bed once the presidential race is called.

But if they win either or both....things get real bumpy.

See even if the pick up either seat, the senate still isnt decided no matter the presidential race outcome.

See the democrats are defending a seat as well in a very tight race....in Nevada.

Which means if you want to know for SURE who's going to control the senate, if the Dems take only 1 of those seats, you have to wait until the results come in from Nevada AND the presidential election....and the absolute earliest the NV results are coming in is 10pm EDT....but dont count on it cause thats when polls close and short of a blowout its going to take a while to count those votes.

So the only way your getting an early night for the senate is if Hillary wins the presidency early, AND the dems take both the MO and NH seats  (thereby rending the NV seat kinda irrelevant since the VP breaks ties), and to be honest....I dont see this being the most likely outcome as I dont think the dems are taking the MO seat.

So there you have it, early sleepers.....the chances you wont have to stay up late tomorrow, and the "calls" that can signal you when its safe to sleep....or not as the case may be.