Early Sleepers Guide to when you can sleep on election night 2016

Alright, so even if youve been living under a rock, you know theres an election tomorrow. Hell an alien ship could crash land in the middle alaska, and the one thing they would know by the time their people came to pick them up is we have an election.

And youve probibily also heard its going to be a close election, which usually means a long night..and you might need to go to bed early

So with that in mind, heres the early sleepers guide to election night 2016:

Ok so first, we establish the states that wont have any real surprises for each side,

For Hillary Clinton, thats VT, MA, RI, NY, CT, NJ, MD, VA, DC, WI, MN, IL, CO, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI and 3 votes from ME, for a starting total of 252 of the needed 270 electoral votes.

For Donald Trump thats WV, IN, KY, TN, SC, AL, MS, LA, AK, MO. KS, TX, OK, ND, SD, MT, WY, ID, AK and 4 Votes from NE, for a starting total of 157 votes.

Now you can see already, Trumps winning more states....but Clintons winning the more populated states, and since the electoral college  (EC) works on population, that means Clinton has almost an 100 EC vote lead, and is much closer than Trump is to victory.

Now this also leaves several swing states, NH, MI, OH, IA, NC, GA, FL, NV, UT, AZ, and 1 vote each from ME and NE are the commonly accepted swing states.

Though to be honest, I think thats actually way to broad....it now seems a safe bet Clinton will pick up MI, and Trump is a near lock to win GA, UT and that 1 vote from NE, and a safe bet for AZ, and IA as well

Making the new totals Clinton 268 to 197 for Trump.

This leaves NH, OH, NC, FL, NV, and that 1 ME vote as the remaining swing votes.

And to be honest, there is no way for a 269/270 split, meaning that one vote in ME is basically worthless as far as affecting someones chances to win, so we can ignore it.

Of these remaining 5 states, its not outside the realm of possibility that either candidate wins, any of them, and in theory a win in any of them puts Hillary Clinton over the top and makes her president.

Trump by comparison needs to win all 5, so the odds dont appear in his favor from this initial set up.

But upsets happen, and its likely going to take some time for any of those 5 states to actually get called, so the question becomes how soon can you safely go to bed.

And of course each side has a couple of "reach states" the would like to take from the other, Clinton would like to pick off GA and AZ from Trumps pile.

Trump meanwhile would like MI and PA from Clintons pile.

Now because we are trying to get this done early....Im not going to focus too much on AZ, I think the race could and will be called before anyone tries to call AZ

now because Clinton is so close to winning, the truth is, if they call GA as "too close to call" , you can probably safely go to bed....the chances of Trump not getting a solid win in GA and picking up all 5 of those swing states is incredibly small unless he scores an upset in PA

And if they already called PA for Clinton, and then GA as "too close to call"...go to bed, Clinton's going to win, the odds of trump running the table on those 5 states is basically nill.

Conversely if they call PA as "too close to call" and GA for Trump.....your going to be pulling late hours, and Trumps got a decent shot, as this particular set up results in a 248/197 Clinton lead.

But if they call FL for Clinton in this situation....you can probably go to bed, that kicks her up to 277...if she holds MI. However none of the other swings put her over the top alone, if she can win two of them though...you can sleep.

And of course, the reverse is true as well, if GA goes red and MI goes "too close to call", and Clinton picks up FL and keeps PA....shes got 281, you can sleep now.

However in this case, she could also win in OH and have exactly 270....meaning you can go to bed if that call is made for Clinton as well.

But what if they call GA for Trump and both MI and PA as "too close to call"?

Well at this point, its officially a fight, with Clinton at 232 to Trumps 197....but I dont like Clintons chances if she cant lock down both MI and PA, so you can probably go to bed.

And if Trump somehow wins both PA and MI (plus GA), then its going to be a very long night. At that point the EC vote total is a Trump lead of 233 to 232....and no one of the 5 swing states is large enough for either candidate to win....though again the safe bet is this means Trump wins cause theres not any likely situation in which Clinton can lose those 2 states, and still have a chance of winning enough of the remaining 5 to win.

Finally we get to the least likely situation of all, and the only one that likely requires you staying up past 10 o'clock EDT or so,  

Trump wins PA and MI but loses GA and AZ.

This would result in total and utter annihilation of the space time continuum (cause of how extremely unlikely it is)

no seriously, this would give us a 259 to 206 EC vote split....with Hillary still winning. Now this and a call in any of FL, NC or OH for Hillary would allow you to go to bed, she just won (somehow).

This also happens to be the ONLY case in which that 1 vote in ME is at all relevant, as a call for Hillary in both NV and NH would give her 269 votes....meaning that ME vote could put her over the top.

Conversely this also means, if they only call NH and NV for Hillary in this situation, and Trump gets the rest......we have a tie.

Which means every body should make their way to the nearest bar and drink them out of businesses...we are totally fucked.

So yea, there you have it....at least for the presidential race, it might actually be an early night...assuming no surprises it will take only 1 call of one of the east coast/central swings (NH, FL, NC or OH) for Clinton...and we can all call it a night.

And even in most of the likely surprise cases where one of the 4 possible reach states gets flipped or at least turned "too close to call" you probably wont have to be up all that late....maybe 11 or midnight EDT.

Now if you care about the senate races.....thats going to be a whole different problem....and you better get the coffee ready cause you likely wont be sleeping anytime soon.

So the odds are extremely good the Democrats will take 3 Republican Seats specifically IL, WI and PA (in that order of likelyhood). But to take the senate....they need 5, 4 if Hillary wins.

The only other seats they have a chance at are in NH and MO, now if they lose both of them....thats it for the senate, you can call it a night and go to bed once the presidential race is called.

But if they win either or both....things get real bumpy.

See even if the pick up either seat, the senate still isnt decided no matter the presidential race outcome.

See the democrats are defending a seat as well in a very tight race....in Nevada.

Which means if you want to know for SURE who's going to control the senate, if the Dems take only 1 of those seats, you have to wait until the results come in from Nevada AND the presidential election....and the absolute earliest the NV results are coming in is 10pm EDT....but dont count on it cause thats when polls close and short of a blowout its going to take a while to count those votes.

So the only way your getting an early night for the senate is if Hillary wins the presidency early, AND the dems take both the MO and NH seats  (thereby rending the NV seat kinda irrelevant since the VP breaks ties), and to be honest....I dont see this being the most likely outcome as I dont think the dems are taking the MO seat.

So there you have it, early sleepers.....the chances you wont have to stay up late tomorrow, and the "calls" that can signal you when its safe to sleep....or not as the case may be.