So yea, I dont know if you've heard, but in about 6 weeks on January 1st we as a country fall off something called the Fiscal Cliff....WHICH MEANS WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!......except not.
For those who dont actually know what it is, when the "supercommittee" last year couldnt agree on a plan to reduce the debt in order to raise the debt ceiling, an "option B" in the same legislation kicked in automatically. That option B are intentionally catastrophic cuts in defense and non defense spending totaling 110 billion dollars the largest spending cut the world has ever seen and cuts that would likely cause out economy to plunge head long in a depression like abyss that we would never climb out of. And added to that as well would be an end to the Bush Tax cuts (and a handful of other tax cuts) across the board, if congress cant act by January 1st.
Except like everything else their is a catch: the 110 billion in cuts is by the END of the fiscal year (basically October 31st) and the cuts are spaced out over the year and not all at once. So its more like a Fiscal Staircase, and we are only totally screwed if we fall all the way down it.
And there's more, most of the early cuts, and all the tax increases are fully reversible if a deal is reached in January or even early February, so its more like a Fiscal Speedbump. (Congress has a long history of retroactively restoring tax cuts and spending in this period)
And there is one MAJOR thing that happens between now and the end of January, the new congress is sworn it, a congress that is significantly more liberal then the one we have now. So THEY would get to solve this issue, likely resulting in fewer tax cuts for the rich, and less cuts to entitlements and more for defense, and generally a much more liberal final result.
What's that you say? the republicans will never let that happen? Well actually they just might. See there is a man called Grover Norquist. And every congressional term he asks republicans sign a pledge that obligates the signatory to vote yes on ALL tax cuts and NO on all tax increases. If they dont follow the pledge Norquist and his group Americans for Tax Reform will campaign against them, and contribute to their opponents trying to push them out of congress, whereas if they follow the ATR will help them in re-election, and they've got a pretty good track record of following through on those goals. And according to many people (including republicans who signed the pledge) it is that pledge and the fear of breaking it, that is causing much of the intransigence on tax increase in the republican party at the moment. And again after January 1st their will be 2 major changes as it relates to Norquist and the ATR pledge.
In the current congress 41 of 47 senators and 95% (238) of the republican members of the House have signed the pledge, and even though the election is over, if they dont want to incur the wraith of the ATR in the next election they have to hold to the pledge until the end of the term. But once the new congressional term starts things will be slightly different. See in the NEW congress only 39 Senators have signed or resigned the pledge, as have less then 218 members of the House.
Now two things of note about this: First the majority of the House is 218 votes, so with less then 218 votes, the majority of the House (non signing republicans and democrats) is now the "we can discuss tax increases" side. And while 51 may be the hypothetical majority in the Senate, it requires 60 to overcome a filibuster, which means it requires 40 votes to HAVE a filibuster. And the anti tax increase side is going to be officially 1 vote short of a guaranteed filibuster. The second thing to note about this: not enough republicans were defeated between this congress and the new congress to make up that whole gap, a few of them chose not to re-up on the pledge specifically to be able to debate tax increases if needed it the future, believing the GOP ban on tax increases no matter what has harmed the party. So you will find republicans a lot more willing (in theory at least) to "deal" in the new congress.
And wait there's more. Even the Republicans who DID sign the ATR pledge will be more willing to deal. See on January 1st, ALL taxes go up. At the moment a bill that extends the Bush rates for the lower 98% is officially according to the ATR a tax increase in the upper 2%. However once all the rates have gone up, a bill that restores the Bush rates to the bottom 98% does not actually raise taxes on the top 2% so is a tax cut....which the republicans who signed the ATR pledge must vote for, no matter what else is in the bill (like say defense cuts)
So clearly the democrats will be in a much stronger bargaining position after January, more liberals, more republicans willing to deal, and the ones who still signed the pledge can be "bound" into agreement while the Dem's still get their way.
As a liberal therefore it seems oddly the responsible thing to do is actually to step off the cliff....or at least step off the top step to the one below it, we can step back up later, before anyone even realizes we dropped one.
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