Things Rand Paul DOES understand: Rand Paul 2016

So I've stated all over the place that Rand Paul isnt running for president, despite everyone saying he is.

Now the reason I believe he's not running has to do with the laws in his home state of Kentucky, which prohibit appearing on the ballot for more than one statewide office.

Now Rand Paul's senate seat is up for election in 2016.....and since the whole state votes for senate, its a statewide office. As is the presidency. Which means Paul has to pick one.

(As a sidenote by the way, I'm actually on Rand Paul's side on this one. I believe if someone wants they should be able to run for two national level political offices at once. Furthermore these laws banning double ballot appearances pre-date the senate becoming a popularly elected body in 1913, following the passage of the 17th amendment, meaning 100 years ago Rand Paul wouldnt even have this problem, and the law clearly wasnt intended to stop senators from running for president.)

(second sidenote: perhaps ironically, 6 states have never attempted to ratify the 17th amendment....including Kentucky)

And the choice is actually pretty clear, as no former 1 term senator has ever become president with that being their only political office (although Lincoln was only a 1 term former member of the house). Basically if Rand Paul wants to be president some day......or wants to be relevant past the end of next year, he MUST run for the senate, because without that seat he's be irrelevant forever (or at least for 4 years until the next senate election in KY) when he loses the presidential nomination this time out.

Now for a while now, Paul has been trying with no success to get the government of the state of Kentucky to change this law (and most states have), and it hasnt worked.

Well it seems, Paul has found a new loophole. Because it's the parties and not the government who control the primary voting process.

So Rand Paul has asked the Republican party in the state of Kentucky to hold a presidential Caucus not a primary. (although the senate race would still be a primary)

You ses Caucuses dont have ballots and therefore Rand Paul's name would only be on the ballot once....for Senate, in the senate primary. And he could still run for president.

Furthermore it looks like this is going to work. Although nothing official has been announced yet, the republican party in Kentucky appears to be making the preliminary steps to set caucus.

Meaning the door is basically open for Rand Paul to run for president (despite my claims for a while now that this issue in Kentucky would stop him from running)

But there still is one "minor" problem.

And that problem almost caused this blog to be another installment of my "things rand paul doesnt understand" series......until I realized that Paul likely does understand this problem, just doesnt care.

And the problem is this........even if the state allows Caucuses, Rand Paul STILL can not run for President and the Senate at the same time.

Because the parties DO NOT control the General Election, the state does. And the State is still going to go with an ballot election format.   Which would be a problem for Rand Paul, as if he won the Republican Nomination for president, his name would be on the ballot twice.

So he would have to decide how he wants to fuck his state over (from a republican point of view anyways)

Would he remove his name from the presidential ballot....and give Kentucky's 8 electoral votes the the Democrats?

Or would he remove his name from the Senate race.....and effectively hand his senate seat to the Democrats?

Oh and before people mention write in votes as a way out, the state of Kentucky wont count write in votes for candidates who's names appear elsewhere on the ballot. So if Paul withdraws from the senate race, he cant win by write in, and vice versa.

And actually, the "choice"/problem might become much more complicated than that. Assuming I'm reading Kentucky statue 118.212 (which deals with candidates withdrawing from the race) correctly, it appears that after a certain point in the race, even if the candidate withdraws, their name STAYS on the ballot.....the state just doesnt count any votes for them, and posts a warning in all polling places informing people of that.

Which appears to mean that even if Paul chooses to withdraw from one race or the other, if he waits too long, the choice will either already be made for him, (and given how much later the presidential nomination comes than the Senate one, it would presumably be the Presidential Ballot he would be left off) or he might wind up tossed off BOTH races (with votes for him not counting).

Now even best case, where he is off the presidential ballot this is a major national problem for republicans.

Assuming no surprises in state outcomes (so they all go the way they usually do), the basic election map would likely look like this:

2016 Presidential Election: Electoral Map

That map gives the Dems a floor of 240 electoral votes, to the GOP's 208. (you need 270 to win).
But given that normally it would be be 232 electoral votes to the Dems, and 216 to the GOP Kentucky may not seem like that big a deal.

Consider that, with a Red Kentucky, the GOP have 7 paths to victory, to the Dem's 9.
But with a blue Kentucky, the GOP only has 6 paths to victory, and the Dems have 11.

So things become much easier for the Dem's who will have almost twice as many ways to win as the GOP

A blue Kentucky also means the GOP CAN NOT WIN unless they win the state of Florida. All 6 paths to victory include Florida. (with a red Kentucky, they could lose Florida, and still have 1 path the victory to the Dem's 4) By the way it should be pointed out, the Dems dont *need* to win any state. they could win with combinations of states. (so thats not great for the GOP, having one state be "cant lose" without any way to force the Dems into the same position

However winning Florida doesnt do much for the GOP.....they gain nothing (still having 6 ways to win), while reducing the Dems to only 6 ways to win.....meaning the race is now a 50/50.  (as opposed to a Red KY and a Red FL which would reduce the dems to 5 ways to win, a slighly GOP advantage). or at least mathematically it is.

Given that, in this set up the Dems are free to spread money around more than the GOP (who must spend enough in FL to ensure a victory), the GOP need to lock of FL will likely cost them other states, meaning realistically the race is probably has a slight Dem advantage even if the GOP wins FL.

So yea, to sum up, by giving up Kentucky, a Paul Presidential Campaign forces the GOP to win a state they otherwise dont need to win.....simply to keep things even (on paper if not reality), instead of the advantage winning that same state normally gives them.

In otherwords from a national Republican perspective, a Paul presidential campaign is very very bad for the party, and something they likely want to avoid.

Unless of course he has a solution for the general election too......which at the moment he doesnt.

Now for a while I assumed this was yet another sign of Paul's stupidity. He is crowing about fixing his problem.......without actually fixing his problem.

But it dawned on me, as a was preparing to write this blog......Rand Paul probably perfectly understands (or his staff do anyways) everything I laid out in this blog.

The problem is on MY end not his. You see I was assuming Rand Paul actually WANTS to win.

In 2012 people theorized that the Republican Primary had been hijacked by people who really just wanted to use the presidential race to increase their "asking price" and profiles.

It seems maybe they are right, and 2016 will be the same. Because if that is what Rand Paul is after......furthering himself, and not actually intending to win, then he doesnt have a problem.

His "Caucus solution" means, he can run for president, lose in the primary (as he is presumably expecting to and wants to), and go back to the senate suddenly "worth" a lot more, and seemingly higher profile.

He gets everything he wants out of this, and all the problems I address are negated because he's not trying to solve his general election problem, cause he doesnt have one, since he doesnt want to be in it.

In short, Rand Paul presumably understands what he's doing perfectly. This time around he's hoping its his supporters (who presumably want him to be president, and would be pissed off if they realized he was only exploiting the the race for personal/other gain) who dont understand.