The House divided against itself. (speakers race 2015)

So, I have a problem. And its kinda embarrassing, even if it is something that, I am assured, happens to every guy at least one. It appears I suffered from premature blogging with my last entry.

You see, last time out, I blogged about the giant cluster fuck the House was in over the vacated speakers gavel, and basically implied it couldnt get any worse, hence why I wrote the article when I did.

Holy FUCK did I blow that prediction.

So quick update. When last we left, we basically had 3 possible candidate for Speakers. The heir apparent, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, the Democratic opposition candidate Minority leader Nancy Pelosi, and Representative Jason Chaffetz as the potential Tea Party nominee.

And look. I admit I wrote a blog saying it was potentially possible that Pelosi could win. But even i said that wasnt really likely...just legally theoretically possible.

Like everyone else, even after his bad week from hell, I fully expected Kevin McCarthy to be elected speaker last Thursday.

Except, then, just a couple hours before the vote was scheduled he dropped out of the race.

Thats right.....on what was basically election day the guy who was heavily favored to win decided with out warning "Fuck this shit...I'm out"

Now why did this happen? we dont actually know for sure.

There are two theories however.

Theory 1: It was made clear by internal "polling" to McCarthy that he wasnt going to have the votes needed to win (due in part to his Benghazi comments last week), and might in fact lose the overall numbers to Pelosi on the first ballot (although this wouldnt make Pelosi speaker as she needs a majority of all votes cast....not just get the most votes).

And to avoid this humiliation, that would effectively end any future political advancement, he dropped out.

Theory 2: Kevin McCarthy is cheating on his wife (with, it is alleged, another member of congress), and got caught kinda. 

So, heres how thats supposed to play out: GOP rep Walter Jones of North Carolina set the following letter to House Republican Conference the day before stating the following:

'“Some of the most difficult times have been when our Republican leaders or potential Republican leaders must step down because of skeletons in their closets, We’ve seen it with former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Bob Livingston, who ran for Speaker in 1998.

With all the voter distrust of Washington felt around the country, I’m asking that any candidate for Speaker of the House, majority leader, and majority whip withdraw himself from the leadership election if there are any misdeeds he has committed since joining Congress that will embarrass himself, the Republican Conference, and the House of Representatives if they become public.”

So for those who dont know, the one thing Gingrich and Livingston had in common, and what actually eliminated the possibility of Livingston becoming speaker, was having an affair.

So yea, Wednesday afternoon Rep Jones sends a letter to the House Republicans saying anyone having an affair should drop out so as not to be an embarrassment...and the next day, first thing in the morning, McCarthy drops out. (and for the record there are preexisting rumors of his having an affair even before this letter....so assuming one is the result of the other may not be a stretch)

Now it doesnt really matter too much which theory is correct. The end result was the same. The speakers election had to be rescheduled....because the majority party didnt have a candidate.

Really, it cant get that much more embarrassing than that (actually I take that back, it can, and I'll get to that later)

So yea, now the field is wide wide wide open, and the leaderless rabble of the GOP is searching for a diamond in the rough

Let the chaos begin.

We start with the other previously mentioned Republican candidate, Jason Chaffetz. Now as I mentioned in my last blog, Chaffetz didnt exactly have the best week ever. In fact he kinda got massively humiliated by his own graph used at the planned parenthood hearings he chaired.

By the way, turns out, the humiliation wasnt over yet. See this week, on the same day McCarthy dropped out, Chaffetz announcing the finding of his now finished hearings.  

And what wrongdoings did he find by planned parenthood? Drum roll please:

Yea, thats right, they found absolutely no wrong doings of any kind by planned parenthood.

So yea, the new big scandal the GOP was hoping to make a massive issue out of, that propelled Carly Fiorina to the top of the Presidential pile......yea well turns out, not so much. Nothing to see here.

So yea, the guy basically responsible for ruining that for the republicans....and in the most embarrassing way possible (the graph again), is running for speaker.

You tell me, how likely do you think republicans are to support him? Yea,,, I dont think he has a chance anymore either.

By the way. speaking of not finding shit, and wanting to be speaker, Congressman Darrell Issa announced he would consider running for the position.  Issa is probably best know for his 4 different attempts  to find scandal in Benghazi with his hearings..... hearings that went so poorly for him half the reason the current Benghazi special committee was created so the GOP could use the issue to damage Hillary's electoral chances, without Issa's massive incompetence getting in the way. (Which hasnt worked out well for them....as thats what got this whole speaker debacle started)

But yea, seriously when your own party redoes things to remove you cause they think your a moron.....your not going to be speaker.

Luckily for the GOP, it doesnt appear either Chaffetz or Issa actually expects to be speaker....in fact both have already pledged to support Paul Ryan for speaker.

In fact, Paul Ryan is getting support from pretty much everyone....even John Boehner has met with him twice in 3 days to support him as the next speaker.

So I guess the giant republican embarrassment that McCarthy kicked off with his Benghazi comments last week, is finally over?

Yea not so much. You see when asked if he WANTED to be speaker, Paul Ryan basically took to every form of media he could find to repeatedly give his answer.

Turns out, much like Speaker Bohner. Paul Ryan doesnt want the fucking job....especially now that the party has imploded.

It's also worth noting that far right wing commentators like Laura Ingraham, Mark Levine, Erick Ericson, the Conservative Review, and WorldNetDaily are already rallying people against him because he's "too liberal". hes also already opposed by several tea party members of congress.  

Well so much for Plan B.....

Luckily for the GOP there is one final candidate, who is actually willing to take the job, and has some support. Enter Representative Daniel Webster of Florida....who is officially backed by the Freedom Caucus (which is a nice way of saying the tea party).

And actually, at first, Webster doesnt seem like a bad choice....after all in the Speakership election in January, that John Boehner won, Webster was the republican with the second highest amount of votes......12. yea ok....thats not as impressive as I perhaps though it was.

Now admittedly the freedom Caucus has about  40 members....so I guess thats growing support for Webster?

Maybe....but maybe not. Both Congressmen Tom McClintock and Reid Ribble have left the caucus recently....both over their mettling in the speakership, and Ribble explicitly because of the support of Webster.

So yea, even that 40 votes or so may be much softer than it seems.

And it should be mentioned, Webster is only a two term congressman, and has no legislation to his name. He's basically a blank slate without a record.....not really a great basis for growing support outside the tea party. |

Also likely worth noting, One of the major strikes against McCarthy, even before his candidacy exploded, was his relative inexperience in congress compared to other speakers. McCarthy was first elected in 2006.....6 years before Webster. So if McCarthy was inexperienced, what would Webster be?

Plus there is an additional problem, even if, somehow he won, Webster would be on track to have one of the shortest Speakerships in history.

See, a couple months back, Florida's electoral map got thrown out by the State Supreme Court's because some of the districts were illegally gerrymandered.

One of those happens to be Congressman Websters district. And we arnt talking a small change either. In both 2012 and 2014, Websters district was slightly more republican than democrat...to what was about a 4 point difference in favor of the GOP. But after the court ordered redrawing? that district is set to be leaning 18 points in favor of the Democratic.

That's basically insurmountable, no matter how the election goes nationally. And when the first two chapters of your story are "speaker resigns because he believes republicans are out of control" and "original replacement drops out of race at last second, causing massive chaos" you really dont want chapter 3 to be "incumbent speaker of the house defeated in landslide"....which is basically Websters future no matter the national outcomes.

So there is almost nothing to convince people to vote for Webster.....unless you like stories about the speaker that are embarrassing to the party (as the lose of his seat would be).


So where does that leave republicans? It actually leaves them with 3 possibilities of what to do:

Option 1: Keep John Boehner.

Boehner said he wont resign until a new speaker is named. So in theory if the GOP cant find anyone, just keep him around until the election next year.

Of course that would create the narrative the the GOP incapable of governing (a point dems are already ruining against them on), that they are actually incapable of deciding among themselves who should lead them and instead have to resort to forcing someone they ousted to stay in the job against their will.

Thats a horrible narrative to have leading into an election....and a horrible legacy for Joh Boehner personally.

Which brings us to Option 2: John Boehner says to hell with this shit, I want nothing more to do with this and resigns anyways.

There actually IS a contingency for this. Upon becoming speaker the speaker submits a list of names to the Clerk of the House of members to replace him. If the office of speaker becomes vacant, the first name on the list becomes temporary speaker.

Now while no one knows whos name is actually at the top of the list, the smart money says its Majority Leader McCarthy....you know the guy who just dropped out.

More to the point, the guy who just dropped out possibly due to a sex scandal.....a scandal that when it breaks (if true) would pretty much force him out office...likely in the next 3-6 months

Meaning we would get to replay this entire debacle for the GOP....with the added sex scandal fall out....right in the middle of the presidential election.

You what to know the number 1 way to fuck up the GOP's chances in that election. ^ thats it.

So yea, both of these options kinda suck for the Republicans....and its possible the only thing standing between them and even greater embarrassment is the patience of a man who no longer wants the job to stick around...and who could change his mind at any time.

Which brings up to our 3rd and final option. this one already floated by  GOP Representative Charlie Dent:

"We may need a bipartisan coalition to elect the next speaker, That's a very real possibility right now, and I think anybody who is honest about this knows it."

Thats right....option 3 is working with some democrats to elect a speaker.....

by the way, the Democrats, in the form of Minority Whip Steny Hoyer have actually responded to this:

"Clearly, with Pelosi's name on the ballot, she'll get the overwhelming majority of all Democrats, I'm sure. She's indicated that's what she wants to do. Republicans are going to have to decide on their side what they're going to do."
Translation: The Democrats have their candidate already...but is a show of magnanimity, they are willing to let Republicans vote for her as well if they want.

And is that likely to happen?

Well in a story that seems tangential at first, the Export-Import bank was reopened this week after being shut earlier this year by the GOP in the House refusing to fund it.

See Democrats forced a vote to refund it on the House Floor.....and it should be mentioned Democrats do not have the votes to do that on their own....they had help.

Specifically they had 41 republicans join them in this effort......that being 16% of Republicans.

Thats right, 16% of the GOP in the house broke ranks with the party to help the Democrats pass a bill.

By the way, the Democrats +16% of the GOP adds up to 229 votes. The threshold to elect a new speaker (assuming all members vote) is only 217.

Now just because a Republican was willing to reopen the Ex-Im bank doesnt mean they would be willing to vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker.....but it would seem to suggest the Democrats have a very good base to start with, should they decide they need to peel off some republican votes....or even just to convince them not to vote at all (as the Speaker need only win the majority of votes case, not the majority of the House)
 
 So while I actually first floated the idea of Pelosi as speaker more as a theoretical exercise in what was legally possible....I may have actually been on to something after all.